November UMBC Poll: Finding a Green Party lane.
Background
Polls are more than scoreboards. For campaigns like ours, their real value is in what they reveal about people’s fears, hopes, and trust in the political system. The latest UMBC poll offers exactly that: a snapshot of deep economic anxiety, skepticism toward both major parties, and an opening for campaigns that can offer something different.
The UMBC poll is a survey of residents and voters living in Maryland and the Baltimore metro region. It aims to provide Marylanders a voice on important political, policy, social, and economic issues facing the state.
One of the challenges for third party or smaller insurgent campaigns is that most polls are not designed for us, they focus on two-party competition, and the issues relevant to that. But commissioning our own polling requires a level of money and capacity we simply don’t have yet.
So our job is to read public polls in a way that serves our short term goals:
- Win the Green Party primary
- Qualify for public finance matching funds
- Get on the debate stage
- Win 100K votes
As well as the long term goals:
- Emergence of a multiparty Maryland
- Expanded grassroots democracy
- Implement Green values and solutions
Some things I look for:
- Discontent with the direction we are heading and economic anxiety about the future.
This is where our hopeful vision of a solidarity economy connects with voters. - Distrust of the two parties, their candidates, the system they enforce, and the results they produce.
This is what drives our critique of the two-party system. - Opportunities for political realignment within certain groupings of people.
This is why we talk about a multiparty grassroots democracy as a concrete alternative.
This poll presents tremendous opportunities for our campaign, Green campaigns in Maryland, and the emergence of a more healthy multiparty political system.
Discontent and Economic Anxiety
The discontent and anxiety of Marylanders are on full display in this poll.
Forty-eight percent of Maryland adults say the state is on the wrong track, while 40 percent believe it is heading in the right direction.
This wrong track number is up 10% since last year. The right track number is down 6%. The Trump administration and its continued targeting of Maryland has certainly made the state of the state worse, but these numbers show that discontent has been growing for a long time.
Sixty-nine percent of Marylanders rate the state’s economic conditions over the past year as “poor” or “fair,” while 30 percent describe them as “good” or “excellent.”
And another question
Looking ahead to next year, more than half of Marylanders (55 percent) think that economic conditions will be worse, 31 percent say they will be “about the same,” and 11 percent expect them to be “better.”
These two numbers together paint a stark picture of the direction Marylanders think the state is headed. For a long time our economy has heavily depended on federal government jobs, contracts, and grants. After the COVID state of emergency these sectors represented much of the job growth and tax base. The stability of this part of the economy covered up the relative weakness of the rest of the economy. However, dependency creates vulnerability, and given our polarized politics, that vulnerability makes Maryland a target.
The Trump administration's attacks on these sectors of the economy have exposed the fundamental flaws of Maryland's economy and the people of the state are seeing it. The long-term impacts of the loss of federal resources will continue to define discussions about the economy. Politicians who simply want to go back to a different time when their party was in power will likely fail to persuade many voters.
Another important question highlights how widespread that anxiety is.
Marylanders were also asked how concerned they were about several key economic issues. The numbers below show the percent “very” or “somewhat” concerned:
● The price of food and consumer goods: 92 percent
● The cost of health care and health insurance: 89 percent
● The cost of household electricity: 88 percent
● People being unable to find good-paying jobs: 86 percent
● The cost and availability of housing: 79 percent
● The price of gasoline: 64 percent
These economic anxieties about prices and costs of core necessities show that "affordability" is still at top of mind for many Marylanders. If the candidates of the two parties can not offer meaningful pathways to higher wages and/or lower costs then there will be a lot of Marylanders willing to embrace something different, or to protest the current system.
Marylanders were asked about some of the potential concerns regarding the use of AI. Concerns about AI are widespread. The numbers below show the percent “very” concerned:
● The spread of misinformation and political propaganda: 81 percent
● Identity theft or impersonation: 78 percent
● The impact on education and critical thinking: 61 percent
● A decline in personal connections and face-to-face social interactions: 58 percent
● AI and automation replacing human jobs: 55 percent
● The environmental impact of data centers: 51 percent
● The use of facial recognition in law enforcement: 44 percent
This question also shows that over the long term over half of Marylanders are also concerned about the long term loss of jobs to AI and other technologies. While this anxiety is not as acute as other concerns about AI, it does show an overall concern that the economy and jobs we have long relied on in this state, feel precarious to many Marylanders.
For us, that means treating AI, data centers, and automation not as buzzwords, but as workplace, privacy, and environmental issues that demand public oversight in Maryland.
Conclusion
When economic anxiety is high and people are pessimistic about the future there is a significant challenge to the two-party system. This is especially true if the candidates and incumbents from the Democrats and Republicans seem distant from those economic realities, either in word or in policy. Ross Perot and Ralph Nader both tapped into this and used it to channel the public imagination toward outsider campaigns.
This is especially true in Maryland and a particular risk for Democrats, since they control every aspect of state government. Annapolis Democrats will blame DC Republicans for the poor economic conditions, and while many voters will accept that, many more will blame both Democrats in charge in Annapolis and Republicans in charge in DC.
This is why we offer a plan for a solidarity economy, and why we are working with local activists to offer an AI Policy that puts Maryland's people and communities at the center of our economy, not corporations and the federal government.
Distrust of the Two-Party System
If the election were held today, 49 percent of registered voters say they would support Democrat Wes Moore, while 29 percent would back the Republican candidate. Another 12 percent say they would choose “some other candidate,” and 10 percent are undecided.
It is early and these numbers will change, but the 12 percent of voters who say "some other candidate" are an obvious opportunity. These voters are not "undecided" between Democrats and Republicans, they are open to a different choice. These are exactly the voters most likely to sign a debate inclusion petition, support public financing, and consider a Green vote if they see we’re viable.
Beyond that, a 20 percent gap between Moore and a generic Republican indicates that this election may not be competitive. If the GOP nominee is in fact a generic Republican, these numbers suggest this race is more likely to resemble 2022 than a nail-biter. When elections are not close voters often feel like their vote is meaningless and can more easily be persuaded to vote for a third party candidate they believe in without the risk of a "spoiler" vote.
Future polling that explicitly includes a Green option will help clarify how large this lane really is.
46 percent of voters say they are likely to consider voting for a candidate from a political party different from their own, while 50 percent say they are unlikely to do so.
In a time when we are told that voters are highly polarized and focused on supporting their side of the civil war, above all else, this number provides a glimpse of something different. It is worth watching to see if this number stays like this. Our job is to show those voters that a Green vote is not hypothetical protest, but a concrete way to change what politics in Maryland looks like.
Marylanders were asked which party they trust more — the Democratic Party or the Republican Party — to handle a variety of different issues facing the state.
For the most part Marylanders trust Democrats on every issue over Republicans. This should not be a surprise in Maryland. However, a consistent 14-16% don't trust either party on these questions. That provides a real opportunity to offer a concrete vision of a more responsive, more collaborative political system.
52 percent of voters say they cast their ballot mostly to support a candidate they like, while 18 percent say they cast their ballot mostly to oppose a candidate they dislike. More than a quarter (27 percent) say a little bit of both motivate them.
I love this question! It provides so much opportunity. First and most obviously, 52 percent vote for what they believe in. If we can provide an optimistic vision that the economy and the political system can get better and if people believe in the work that we are doing they are open to voting. This is especially helpful in a world where the election is not particularly close.
At the same time 18 percent are expressing their desire to cast a protest vote, and we need to harness that in areas like Palestine, education, reparations, energy, data centers, and other places where progressives are mad at Governor Moore.
And, over a quarter of people are a little bit of both, which is also a good lane for us.
Marylanders were also asked how well a series of traits describe the Democratic and Republican Parties in Maryland, using a scale from 1 (“does not describe at all”) to 5 (“describes extremely well”). The percentages below represent those who rate each characteristic a 4 or 5 on the scale
Gets things done
● Democrats: 27 percent
● Republicans: 21 percent
Democrats +6
Keeps promises
● Democrats: 27 percent
● Republicans: 22 percent
Democrats +5
This question is damning. Democrats have decades long veto proof majorities in both chambers of the Maryland General Assembly. They have every statewide constitutional office and they overwhelmingly control the largest jurisdictions in the state.
Conclusion
Gerrymandered maps, a monopoly on amending the state constitution, and closed primaries ensure that Democrats will maintain these power positions for the foreseeable future, but these numbers represent a significant distrust in the current political system.
If voters barely give the ruling party passing marks on basic competence despite near-total control of state government, that’s not just a messaging problem—it’s a legitimacy problem. That is the crack where a serious third party can plant a flag.
That’s why we pair our policy agenda with structural democracy reforms—public campaign financing, ranked-choice voting, proportional representation, modernized ballot access, and inclusive debates on MPT—because people don’t just distrust outcomes, they see that the system itself has been built to shut them out.
Opportunities for Political Realignment
We have been all over the state talking to voters this year and we have learned a few key things:
- Many voters know things are bad and think they are going to get worse
- Most people do not trust either party to get things done or keep their promises
- Most voters want something to vote for, but plenty also want to protest a broken system
The snapshot of sentiment in this poll confirms what we’ve heard everywhere we go. It isn’t an AI hallucination or a social media bubble; it’s how Marylanders feel.
For a third party campaign, the opening is clear: respond to deep economic anxiety and distrust in the system with a hopeful, values-based vision of how things can be better—and a plan to get there.
That means doing two things at once: disrupting the tired political script and building a path that helps coalitions of voters understand their own power to demand more, and to win more. Hitting concrete milestones like qualifying for public financing and earning a place on the Maryland Public Television debate stage are not just campaign vanity metrics; they are proof points that voters can use their power to force a more responsive democracy.
We hear this across Maryland. In Baltimore, frustration with ‘tough on crime’ politics that fail to keep communities safe. In Greenbelt and across the DC suburbs, anger at decades of one-party rule that treats people as an afterthought. In Hagerstown and Western Maryland, fear and uncertainty about climate, energy, and the future of work. Marylanders are mad—but more importantly, they are worried.
As we organize to win our primary, qualify for public financing, and get on the debate stage, we have the chance to turn those worries and that anger into a real alternative that people are genuinely excited to vote for.
Join Us To Continue the Conversation
This Wednesday, November 12 at 7:00 PM Eastern, we’re breaking this poll down on our first campaign livestream and talking concretely about how Maryland can move beyond a stagnant two-party script. If you see yourself in these numbers—worried about costs, skeptical of Annapolis, hungry for something to vote for—join us, bring questions, and be part of building a real alternative.
